Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 11.459083 13.143886 14.963180 17.070274 19.439927 22.018855 25.034325
2025-03-23 9.091932 11.389801 14.066884 17.402008 21.430309 26.122568 31.984838
2025-03-30 7.989475 10.587988 13.764430 17.906112 23.133661 29.479772 37.730422
2025-04-06 6.869126 9.585736 13.055421 17.769538 23.958498 31.752023 42.245425
2025-04-13 5.725190 8.376707 11.901356 16.871562 23.630830 32.423915 44.634156
2025-04-20 5.238498 7.984391 11.761987 17.260403 24.964278 35.263655 49.938544
2025-04-27 4.815009 7.623189 11.611186 17.587404 26.191707 37.983382 55.179319
2025-05-04 4.331985 7.117708 11.197878 17.486637 26.780430 39.821540 59.263382
2025-05-11 3.877447 6.604124 10.718582 17.233539 27.104174 41.268346 62.828003
2025-05-18 3.551514 6.255589 10.450584 17.260773 27.817415 43.279387 67.264099
2025-05-25 3.304036 6.006848 10.310378 17.461311 28.784107 45.685077 72.362643
2025-06-01 3.039241 5.701952 10.052174 17.448245 29.405344 47.585442 76.771624
2025-06-08 2.756866 5.345576 9.690131 17.254512 29.749475 49.111405 80.738452
2025-06-15 2.568067 5.135422 9.553374 17.417083 30.666478 51.558236 86.229426
2025-06-22 2.466602 5.071908 9.657383 17.982191 32.258662 55.121033 93.598845
2025-06-29 2.258775 4.789359 9.354891 17.824383 32.630909 56.742936 97.943487
2025-07-06 1.964972 4.311569 8.663155 16.930707 31.693062 56.178558 98.714736
2025-07-13 1.877461 4.231029 8.689710 17.318386 32.978205 59.320191 105.662885
2025-07-20 1.788759 4.139070 8.686313 17.647205 34.170785 62.349504 112.535733
2025-07-27 1.654700 3.939512 8.461140 17.545846 34.584112 64.066641 117.261635
2025-08-03 1.515339 3.714322 8.167484 17.292075 34.700524 65.267971 121.143888
2025-08-10 1.418334 3.571639 8.026014 17.319359 35.329754 67.379530 126.663812
2025-08-17 1.346447 3.477927 7.976071 17.520519 36.289554 70.106389 133.350092